Currently I am [in horror] watching what looks to be a very active severe weather week take shape on the models. As it stands there could be great storm chase potential from Wednesday all the way through Sunday. The reason I watch in horror is I start a new job this week, so requesting time off work so soon is not a decision to make lightly. Still though, both the GFS and euro have been pretty consistent in the pattern, with typical timing/placement issues.
Right now the best days look to be Thursday and Saturday, with good chances on Friday and Sunday as well. The areas at risk will largely be the dryline play in the southern plains of KS/OK and TX which of course has every chaser in the country drooling on themselves uncontrollably. Of lesser mention [as is usually the case] is the potential for secondary target areas along a warm front that could stretch through central IL and IN.
Currently I am watching all potential target areas closely, even though I start a new job and will unfortunately not be able to chase the full outbreak, I should still be able to squeeze in 2 chasing days, maybe 3 if I can weasel a day off. Saturday/Sunday look like the most favored days for me, especially if the more local target verifies, but I definitely would rather be on the more potent dryline setup in the plains. My debate now is whether or not I want to try and get Friday or Monday off. If I take Friday off I can leave Thursday night and chase Fri/Sat in the plains and Sunday closer to home. If I take Monday off I can chase Sat/Sun in the plains, which right now look to be pretty significant. Unfortunately Thursday is out for me no matter what, despite also looking significant.
Won’t go into much more detail, but here are a couple snapshots showing a very moist warm sector with decent surface flow. A 500mb jet streak over 60kts will help provide great speed and directional shear. Capping issues don’t look to be too troublesome, especially along the dryline. This pattern will stall out for a few days allowing for repeated surface low development, thus the multiple days of chasing.
I will raise my personal chase scale to HIGH, because I WILL be out for at least 1 or 2 of the days. I just don’t know where/when yet. That will have to be decided by logistics. Stay tuned for the latest!
Friday’s area of interest.