February Arctic Blast Coming?

Jan 24, 2015

After a rough start to January, things have eased up the last couple weeks. That trend looks to remain the same with tolerable temperatures for winter levels and just a few nuisance type systems bringing light snow to various parts of the nation. Basically, no major gloom and doom headlines to talk about as we close out January.

Then comes February. I’ve been trying to ignore this for a few days now. Especially since I’ve been burned by mentioning similar things throughout this winter, but models are advertising a return of arctic air once February arrives.
gfsUS_sfc_temp_219

Yea I’ve seen this before. Models showing brutal cold near the end of their cycles causing me to make mention of it, only to have the forecast moderate the following day and I end up looking stupid. So why is this time any different? It isn’t. The pattern change coming up seems to support this though. All the models are on board and on paper it makes perfect sense. This temperature anomaly chart illustrates it well. Warm in the west = cold in the east.
ecm_eps_t850a_conus_11

What concerns me about this pattern is a ridge as anomalous as the one being shown is a ridge that doesn’t want to move easily. Another blocking pattern could be setting up, meaning this pattern right now doesn’t appear to be a quick shot, and could actually stick around for awhile. The weak snowfall makers I mentioned earlier will only help reinforce the cold air as well. Bottom line, it looks like winter is gearing up to make a move on us next month. Stay tuned!

 

 

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