It has been awhile since some chase worth setups presented themselves. After missing an event in Kansas yesterday night, I am currently gearing up to head out for a chase in Nebraska Sunday. Currently there are some issues with the setup, and my confidence in a big tornado is somewhat low. The first problem I see is lack of good directional shear, as our surface low will be lifting to the northeast dragging a cold front behind it. Ahead of the front, moisture will pool nicely, but a very hot atmosphere ahead of it could lead to large temperature dewpoint spreads. This will affect the LCL height and make it harder to get tornadoes.
One small sign of hope is the potential for a secondary low to develop in Kansas, this backs the flow every slightly enough to add some good turning in the low levels, but down here there is less moisture pooling which could lead to even higher storm bases. This would also be a good triple point type cold front/dryline intersecting area, a known favorite for tornadic storms.
Despite all this, it does appear supercell storms will initiate in the afternoon. High based storms can be very photogenic, and you never know when mesoscale magic can compensate for a setup that otherwise doesn’t look too great on paper. Its late May, the peak of tornado season. When you have some of the ingredients come together. You chase.
On Monday, I will follow the setup home into Illinois and even the Chicago area where the same cold front could set off another round of severe weather, with an even less tornado threat.